Today's questionPolitics
Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?: Will Stephen Miller leaves Deputy Chief of Staff in before 2027?
96%Stephen Miller73 pts
Kalshi96%
$437.5K 24h volume · 1 venue
Prediction markets for a more informed world
The market index for what happens next.
24h volume · money traded on every venue, over the last 7 days. Point at the line for each day.
How Predxy works
The same question on every venue, read as one clearer number.
- 1
The question
Predxy finds the same question on every venue that lists it.
Time's Person of the Year for 2026: Will Zohran Mamdani be Time Person of the Year in 2026?- Politics
- Culture
$55.3K 24h volume · 3 venues
- 2
Every venue's price
Each venue prices it on its own, and they rarely agree.
Polymarket24%$5.7K
Opinion30%$398
- 3
One Predxy index
Combined into one probability, each venue counted by its 24-hour volume.
Top questions
The most important predictions worldwide.
| # | Question | Market says | 24h change | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 |  | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 11%Gavin Newsom | 1 pts | |||
| 02 |  | Will Arsenal win the English Premier League 2026/2027? SportsUnited Kingdom | 74%Arsenal | 5 pts | |||
| 03 |  | NC-03 House winner?: Will Republican win the House race for NC-03? Greg Murphy Politics | 17%Greg Murphy | 9 pts | |||
| 04 |  | College Football National Championship Winner: Will Ohio St. win the College Football Playoff National Championship? | 7%Ohio St. | 5 pts | |||
| 05 |  | Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?: Will Stephen Miller leaves Deputy Chief of Staff in before 2027? Politics | 96%Stephen Miller | 73 pts | |||
| 06 |  | Fed decision in Dec 2026?: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting? Hike 25bps Economypriced by 1 of 2 | 77%Hike 25bps | 12 pts | |||
| 07 |  | Heisman Trophy Winner: Who will win Heisman Trophy? Jeremiah Smith Sportspriced by 2 of 3 | 42%Jeremiah Smith | 3 pts | |||
| 08 | Recession this year?: Will there be a recession in 2026? Starts | 2%Starts | 1 pts |
| # | Question | Market says | 24h change | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | | Fed decision in Dec 2026?: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting? Hike 25bps Economypriced by 1 of 2 | 77%Hike 25bps | 12 pts | |||
| 02 | Recession this year?: Will there be a recession in 2026? Starts | 2%Starts | 1 pts | ||||
| 03 | | Fed decision in Dec 2026?: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting? Fed maintains rate Economy | 22%Fed maintains rate | 14 pts | |||
| 04 | Will there be a recession in 2027? Yes Economy | 21%Yes | 5 pts | ||||
| 05 | CPI in October: Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in October 2026? Above 0.1% Economy | 93%Above 0.1% | 2 pts | ||||
| 06 | .jpg) | Number of rate cuts in 2026?: Will the Fed cut rates 0 times? Exactly 0 cuts Economy | 98%Exactly 0 cuts | 1 pts | |||
| 07 | Average Wall Street bonus in 2026: Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $200,000? Economy | 94%Above $200,000 | 3 pts | ||||
| 08 | CPI core in October: Will CPI Core rise more than 0.1% in October? Above 0.1% Economy | 87%Above 0.1% | 5 pts |
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| # | Question | Market says | 24h change | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | .png) | Best AI at the end of 2026?: Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? Gemini Artificial Intelligencepriced by 1 of 2 | 61%Gemini | 2 pts | |||
| 02 | | Best AI at end of November 2026? Gemini Artificial Intelligence | 79%Gemini | 6 pts | |||
| 03 | Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?: Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? OpenAI Artificial Intelligence | 14%OpenAI | 3 pts | ||||
| 04 |  | Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT? Before 2027 Artificial Intelligence | 3%Before 2027 | 2 pts | |||
| 05 | Best AI at the end of 2026?: Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? Muse Spark Artificial Intelligence | 1%Muse | 0 pts | ||||
| 06 |  | Time's Person of the Year for 2026: Will AI be Time Person of the Year in 2026? Artificial Intelligence | 4%AI | 1 pts | |||
| 07 | Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? Before 2028 Artificial Intelligence | 59%Before 2028 | 4 pts | ||||
| 08 |  | Will Meta have a top-ranked AI model before 2027? Artificial Intelligence | 13%Meta | 6 pts |
| # | Question | Market says | 24h change | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | .jpg) | Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000?: Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000 by Dec 31, 2026? 50,000 first Crypto | 11%50,000 first | 2 pts | |||
| 02 |  | Bitcoin price at the end of 2026: BTC price on Jan 1, 2027? 60,000 to 64,999.99 Crypto | 7%60,000 to 64,999.99 | 2 pts | |||
| 03 |  | Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?: Will the US government be shut down on Dec 12, 2026? Yes CryptoUnited States | 39%Yes | 8 pts | |||
| 04 | | Will BTC-USDC perp mark touch 65,000 at any point before 1 December 2026 00:00 UTC? Crypto | 19%Yes | 2 pts | |||
| 05 | | Will BTC trimmed mean be above $90000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Nov 30, 2026? Above $90,000.00 Crypto | 11%Above $90,000.00 | 1 pts | |||
| 06 | | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027? Before 2027 Crypto | 4%Before 2027 | 1 pts | |||
| 07 | | Will Bitcoin be above $149999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET? Before January 2027 Crypto | 2%Before January 2027 | 1 pts | |||
| 08 | Will HYPE-USDC perp mark touch 100 at any point before 1 December 2026 00:00 UTC? Crypto | 11%Yes | 8 pts |
| # | Question | Market says | 24h change | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | | Will Arsenal win the English Premier League 2026/2027? SportsUnited Kingdom | 74%Arsenal | 5 pts | |||
| 02 | | College Football National Championship Winner: Will Ohio St. win the College Football Playoff National Championship? | 7%Ohio St. | 5 pts | |||
| 03 | | Heisman Trophy Winner: Who will win Heisman Trophy? Jeremiah Smith Sportspriced by 2 of 3 | 42%Jeremiah Smith | 3 pts | |||
| 04 | .png) | College Football National Championship Winner: Will Texas win the College Football Playoff National Championship? Sports | 9%Texas | 3 pts | |||
| 05 |  | Which team will win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? — Jacksonville Sportspriced by 1 of 2 | 10%Jacksonville | 1 pts | |||
| 06 |  | 2027 Pro Basketball Champion: Will Golden State win the 2027 Pro Basketball Finals? Sports | 4%Golden State | 2 pts | |||
| 07 |  | Who will win the 2026 College Football Big 12 Championship Game? — BYU | 6%BYU | 12 pts | |||
| 08 | Draw/Tie wins SportsAfghanistanZimbabwe | 66%Draw/Tie | 33 pts |
Live pulse
Biggest moves, most traded, where money is arriving, most viewed, resolving soon, and where markets disagree.
Most traded
Alaska Senate winner?: Will Republicans win the Senate race in Alaska? Republican party3%Republican party$2.8M today
Biggest inflow
Will White House post 60-79 posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?1%Yes100% of its volume today
Resolving soon
Seok Hyun Ko vs Wellington Turman: Seok Hyun Ko wins84%Seok Hyun KoResolves in 1 minute
Biggest disagreement
2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Will Mark Kelly be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?4%Mark Kelly97 pt spread
State of prediction markets
A global view of what the world is trading.
Volume down 55.2% this week. Kalshi leads.
Fear & Greed
~43Fearprovisional
76.1% coverage · updated 6 minutes ago · experimental
How it is calculated
Experimental proxy for market activity and uncertainty, not emotions or optimism about outcomes. Higher scores mean greater activity and lower uncertainty relative to recent history.
Heuristic, not validated sentiment or investment advice. Repricing is not realised volatility. Named-leg uncertainty is not full multi-outcome entropy. Deadlines, category/event mix, reporting changes, cluster errors and manipulated volume can affect the result. Event identity is only as complete as venue mappings. No social engagement or AI inference is used.
What Fear & Greed shows
The market's mood in one number, from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed), worked out each day from how the venues' prices, trading and money compare with their recent past. Experimental, and no forecast of anything.
Market cap
Money in open bets right now
$1.71B 18% 7D
What Market cap shows
Open interest across every venue that publishes it: the money held in contracts not yet settled. The line is the last week; the change is since its first day.
24h volume
All venues, last 24 hours
$158.7M 55.2% 7D
What 24h volume shows
Everything traded in the last 24 hours, the venues that report it added up. The line is the last week; the change is since its first day.
Venue share
- Kalshi57.8%
- Polymarket27.3%
- Outcome6.6%
- Opinion4.1%
What Venue share shows
Each venue's part of the last 24 hours' trading. The largest four are named; every other venue is in Other.
Fewer questionsMore questions
Top countries by activity
- 🇺🇸 United States32%75,974 questions
- 🇬🇧 United Kingdom12.3%29,235 questions
- 🇪🇸 Spain4.9%11,554 questions
- 🇫🇷 France4.7%11,065 questions
- 🇩🇪 Germany2.9%6,782 questions
- 🇮🇹 Italy2.2%5,301 questions
- 🇲🇽 Mexico1.7%3,959 questions
- 🇧🇷 Brazil1.6%3,757 questions
- 🇵🇹 Portugal1.6%3,715 questions
- 🇳🇱 The Netherlands1.4%3,321 questions
- 🇹🇷 Türkiye1.4%3,253 questions
- 🇺🇦 Ukraine1.2%2,880 questions
- 🇨🇦 Canada1.1%2,642 questions
- 🇩🇰 Denmark1.1%2,516 questions
- 🇨🇳 China1%2,356 questions
- 🇧🇪 Belgium1%2,315 questions
- 🇯🇵 Japan0.9%2,202 questions
- 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia0.9%2,030 questions
- 🇦🇪 UAE0.8%1,985 questions
- 🇨🇿 Czechia0.8%1,907 questions
- 🇦🇺 Australia0.7%1,770 questions
- 🇮🇱 Israel0.7%1,656 questions
- 🇵🇪 Peru0.7%1,645 questions
- 🇷🇺 Russia0.6%1,530 questions