Today's questionPolitics
Alaska Senate winner?: Will Republicans win the Senate race in Alaska? Republican party
3%Republican party
Kalshi3%
$2.8M 24h volume · 1 venue
Prediction markets for a more informed world
The market index for what happens next.
24h volume · money traded on every venue, over the last 7 days. Point at the line for each day.
How Predxy works
The same question on every venue, read as one clearer number.
- 1
The question
Predxy finds the same question on every venue that lists it.
Time's Person of the Year for 2026: Will Zohran Mamdani be Time Person of the Year in 2026?- Politics
- Culture
$55.3K 24h volume · 3 venues
- 2
Every venue's price
Each venue prices it on its own, and they rarely agree.
Polymarket24%$5.7K
Opinion30%$398
- 3
One Predxy index
Combined into one probability, each venue counted by its 24-hour volume.
Top questions
The most important predictions worldwide.
| # | Question | Market says | 24h change | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 |  | 2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Will Rahm Emanuel be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | 2%Rahm Emanuel | 1 pts | |||
| 02 | Will CJ Carr win the 2026 Heisman Trophy? Sportspriced by 2 of 3 | 33%CJ Carr | 14 pts | ||||
| 03 |  | Will Arsenal win the English Premier League 2026/2027? SportsUnited Kingdom | 74%Arsenal | 5 pts | |||
| 04 |  | NC-03 House winner?: Will Republican win the House race for NC-03? Greg Murphy Politics | 16%Greg Murphy | 10 pts | |||
| 05 |  | Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?: Will Stephen Miller leaves Deputy Chief of Staff in before 2027? Politics | 96%Stephen Miller | 73 pts | |||
| 06 |  | College Football National Championship Winner: Will Miami (FL) win the College Football Playoff National Championship? | 9%Miami (FL) | 9 pts | |||
| 07 |  | Fed decision in Dec 2026?: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting? Hike 25bps Economypriced by 1 of 2 | 77%Hike 25bps | 12 pts | |||
| 08 | Recession this year?: Will there be a recession in 2026? Starts | 2%Starts | 1 pts |
| # | Question | Market says | 24h change | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | | Fed decision in Dec 2026?: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting? Hike 25bps Economypriced by 1 of 2 | 77%Hike 25bps | 12 pts | |||
| 02 | Recession this year?: Will there be a recession in 2026? Starts | 2%Starts | 1 pts | ||||
| 03 | | Fed decision in Dec 2026?: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting? Fed maintains rate Economy | 23%Fed maintains rate | 13 pts | |||
| 04 | Will there be a recession in 2027? Yes Economy | 21%Yes | 5 pts | ||||
| 05 |  | CPI in October: Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in October 2026? Above 0.2% Economy | 56%Above 0.2% | 5 pts | |||
| 06 | Average Wall Street bonus in 2026: Will average Wall Street bonus for 2026 be above $200,000? Economy | 94%Above $200,000 | 3 pts | ||||
| 07 | .jpg) | Number of rate cuts in 2026?: Will the Fed cut rates 0 times? Exactly 0 cuts Economy | 97%Exactly 0 cuts | 1 pts | |||
| 08 | CPI core in October: Will CPI Core rise more than 0.1% in October? Above 0.1% Economy | 86%Above 0.1% | 4 pts |
.jpg)
| # | Question | Market says | 24h change | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | .png) | Best AI at the end of 2026?: Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? Gemini Artificial Intelligencepriced by 1 of 2 | 62%Gemini | 3 pts | |||
| 02 |  | Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT? Before 2027 Artificial Intelligence | 2%Before 2027 | 3 pts | |||
| 03 | | Best AI at end of November 2026? Gemini Artificial Intelligence | 80%Gemini | 7 pts | |||
| 04 | Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?: Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? OpenAI Artificial Intelligence | 14%OpenAI | 3 pts | ||||
| 05 | Best AI at the end of 2026?: Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? Muse Spark Artificial Intelligence | 1%Muse | 0 pts | ||||
| 06 | Grok App Downloads in October 2026: Will Grok App Downloads for October 2026 be above 65 ? Artificial Intelligence | 8%Above 65 | 7 pts | ||||
| 07 | Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? Before 2028 Artificial Intelligence | 59%Before 2028 | 4 pts | ||||
| 08 |  | Will Meta have a top-ranked AI model before 2027? Artificial Intelligence | 13%Meta | 6 pts |
| # | Question | Market says | 24h change | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | .jpg) | Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000?: Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000 by Dec 31, 2026? 50,000 first Crypto | 10%50,000 first | 1 pts | |||
| 02 |  | Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?: Will the US government be shut down on Dec 12, 2026? Yes CryptoUnited States | 40%Yes | 9 pts | |||
| 03 | | Bitcoin price at the end of 2026: BTC price on Jan 1, 2027? 70,000 to 74,999.99 Crypto | 17%70,000 to 74,999.99 | 3 pts | |||
| 04 |  | Will BTC-USDC perp mark touch 65,000 at any point before 1 December 2026 00:00 UTC? Crypto | 19%Yes | 2 pts | |||
| 05 | | Will BTC trimmed mean be above $90000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Nov 30, 2026? Above $90,000.00 Crypto | 11%Above $90,000.00 | 1 pts | |||
| 06 | | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027? Before 2027 Crypto | 4%Before 2027 | 1 pts | |||
| 07 | | Will BTC-USDC perp mark touch 90,000 at any point before 1 December 2026 00:00 UTC? Crypto | 8%Yes | 1 pts | |||
| 08 | | Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Crypto | 35%In 2026 | 6 pts |
| # | Question | Market says | 24h change | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Will CJ Carr win the 2026 Heisman Trophy? Sportspriced by 2 of 3 | 33%CJ Carr | 14 pts | ||||
| 02 | | Will Arsenal win the English Premier League 2026/2027? SportsUnited Kingdom | 74%Arsenal | 5 pts | |||
| 03 | | College Football National Championship Winner: Will Miami (FL) win the College Football Playoff National Championship? | 9%Miami (FL) | 9 pts | |||
| 04 |  | Which team will win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? — Chicago | 11%Chicago | 1 pts | |||
| 05 | .png) | College Football National Championship Winner: Will Texas win the College Football Playoff National Championship? Sports | 10%Texas | 4 pts | |||
| 06 | .jpg) | Heisman Trophy Winner: Who will win Heisman Trophy? Drew Mestemaker Sportspriced by 1 of 2 | 6%Drew Mestemaker | 4 pts | |||
| 07 |  | 2027 Pro Basketball Champion: Will Golden State win the 2027 Pro Basketball Finals? Sports | 4%Golden State | 2 pts | |||
| 08 | Draw/Tie wins SportsAfghanistanZimbabwe | 64%Draw/Tie | 31 pts |
Live pulse
Biggest moves, most traded, where money is arriving, most viewed, resolving soon, and where markets disagree.
Biggest move
Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?: Will Stephen Miller leaves Deputy Chief of Staff in before 2027?96%Stephen Miller73 pts
Most traded
Alaska Senate winner?: Will Republicans win the Senate race in Alaska? Republican party3%Republican party$2.8M today
Biggest inflow
Will White House post 60-79 posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?1%Yes100% of its volume today
Biggest disagreement
2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Will Mark Kelly be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?4%Mark Kelly97 pt spread
State of prediction markets
A global view of what the world is trading.
Volume down 33.8% this week. Kalshi leads.
Fear & Greed
~43Fearprovisional
76.5% coverage · updated 1 minute ago · experimental
How it is calculated
Experimental proxy for market activity and uncertainty, not emotions or optimism about outcomes. Higher scores mean greater activity and lower uncertainty relative to recent history.
Heuristic, not validated sentiment or investment advice. Repricing is not realised volatility. Named-leg uncertainty is not full multi-outcome entropy. Deadlines, category/event mix, reporting changes, cluster errors and manipulated volume can affect the result. Event identity is only as complete as venue mappings. No social engagement or AI inference is used.
What Fear & Greed shows
The market's mood in one number, from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed), worked out each day from how the venues' prices, trading and money compare with their recent past. Experimental, and no forecast of anything.
Market cap
Money in open bets right now
$1.76B 15.6% 7D
What Market cap shows
Open interest across every venue that publishes it: the money held in contracts not yet settled. The line is the last week; the change is since its first day.
24h volume
All venues, last 24 hours
$210.8M 33.8% 7D
What 24h volume shows
Everything traded in the last 24 hours, the venues that report it added up. The line is the last week; the change is since its first day.
Venue share
- Kalshi61%
- Polymarket28.6%
- Outcome5%
- Opinion3.1%
What Venue share shows
Each venue's part of the last 24 hours' trading. The largest four are named; every other venue is in Other.
Fewer questionsMore questions
Top countries by activity
- 🇺🇸 United States33.1%82,666 questions
- 🇬🇧 United Kingdom11.9%29,605 questions
- 🇪🇸 Spain4.7%11,756 questions
- 🇫🇷 France4.5%11,288 questions
- 🇩🇪 Germany2.8%7,058 questions
- 🇮🇹 Italy2.3%5,796 questions
- 🇲🇽 Mexico2.1%5,218 questions
- 🇧🇷 Brazil1.5%3,744 questions
- 🇵🇹 Portugal1.5%3,743 questions
- 🇳🇱 The Netherlands1.3%3,367 questions
- 🇹🇷 Türkiye1.3%3,291 questions
- 🇺🇦 Ukraine1.2%2,961 questions
- 🇨🇦 Canada1.2%2,935 questions
- 🇩🇰 Denmark1.1%2,634 questions
- 🇨🇳 China1%2,494 questions
- 🇯🇵 Japan0.9%2,349 questions
- 🇧🇪 Belgium0.9%2,327 questions
- 🇦🇪 UAE0.8%2,029 questions
- 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia0.8%2,025 questions
- 🇨🇿 Czechia0.8%1,971 questions
- 🇦🇺 Australia0.7%1,818 questions
- 🇮🇱 Israel0.7%1,693 questions
- 🇷🇺 Russia0.7%1,679 questions
- 🇵🇪 Peru0.7%1,666 questions